WSOP Preview

Now that the US election is over, there may be some fixated people who have suddenly found that their lives have become an intellectual void and they are craving a hit of bamboozling statistics and barely grounded media opinion.

Fortunately, the final table of the main event of the WSOP begins on Sunday, so that presents me with an opportunity to wildly splutter enough thoughts so by the time I have finished, you might fight feel like your face has been used as the canvas for an early Jackson Pollock.

I’ll start by painting the picture as it currently stands:

1. Dennis Phillips 26,295,000
2. Ivan Demidov 24,400,000
3. Scott Montgomery 19,690,000
4. Peter Eastgate 18,375,000
5. Ylon Schwartz 12,525,000
6. Darus Suharto 12,520,000
7. David Rheem 10,230,000
8. Craig Marquis 10,210,000
9. Kelly Kim 2,620,000

For the first penetrating insight, I’ll say we can disregard Kelly Kim. He can only last 9-10 rounds and has admitted he just wanted to finish 9th and make the final table. Although we will probably be down to eight quite quickly, all of them will feel like they have a chance.

To trim the field a little further, I don’t think Ylon Schwartz will grab the top prize as, for all his tournament experience, he is yet to win one. It is a factor that also blights the record of David Rheem. Although he finished second in a WSOP event last year, I think he needs luck on his side here, as will guitar player Craig Marquis, who has been playing poker for less than two years.

Another player with limited experience is satellite winner Darus Suharto, although admittedly his only cash was in last year’s event, finishing 448th and earning $26,389. An accountant residing in Toronto, this year guarantees he will have a double entry but I don’t think he will log $9.1 million.

So we are left with the top four.

Although Dennis Phillips has a reasonable lead, I don’t think this year will see the oldest champion since Noel Furlong who, at the age of 61, won it nine years ago. Despite having booked the assistance of Roy Winston as a coach, I don’t think the current chip-leader will possess the necessary combination of ruthlessness and concentration.

The remaining three on the shortlist all have the above attributes in abundance and it is very difficult to separate them. Peter Eastgate is capable of making Phil Hellmuth throw his chips from the table as the Dane could become the WSOP main event’s youngest bracelet winner – but for that reason I will make him the next casualty.

I think the bracelet is bound for Russia. Ivan Demidov has the big mo. He picked up a cheque for £334,850 for taking third place at the WSOP Europe in September and has already cashed at the 2008 WSOP, earning $39,854 for a $1,000 buy in. He is a fierce competitor at the computer games Starcraft and Warcraft and so will have the concentration. There is an argument that his shyness might be a downside when the cameras start rolling but I believe he will stay focussed and make the plays. I expect Scott Montgomery to run him close.

By the end of Sunday, we will know the final two, who will then go visor to visor on Monday.