I’d like to start the week’s posts by slapping down another chunk of poker goodness. It is part of an ongoing series of pieces that illustrate ways in which absorbing popular science and psychology can assist you at the poker table.
Regular readers may recall that a previous post suggested that recent WSOP main event winner, Peter Eastgate, is a good example of what author Malcolm Gladwell terms an ‘Outlier’ (Check out the posts dated from November 18th – particularly if you are suffering from insomnia). Anyway, I would now like to demonstrate the true breadth of my reading by bringing ‘Blink – The Power of Thinking without Thinking’, to your attention. Yep, you guessed it - the book is by Malcolm Gladwell.
Rumours that I am in bed with his publishers remain unsubstantiated.
‘Blink’ attempts to explain ‘those moments when we know something without knowing why’. It uses a handful of examples, such a car salesman with the best figures in America, relationship advisors who can predict the likelihood that a couple will divorce and art dealers who can instantly spot a forgery. (The latter two examples could conceivably overlap.)
However, the best example for poker players occurs in the introduction: not only is it based on cards, it spares us the hassle of reading the subsequent 250 pages.
Scientists at the University of Iowa conducted an experiment. They placed four decks of cards on the table – two red packs and two blue. Participants were invited to turn cards. Every card would either earn them some money or cost them some money. They were free to choose and were asked to develop the most profitable strategy.
They were not told that the red cards were a snake pit: they gave huge prizes but devastating penalties. By contrast, it was possible for the stooges to profit by only selecting blue cards: the rewards steady and the punishments slight. The scientists wanted to discover how long it would take for the guinea pigs to make the discovery. On average, participants developed a ‘hunch’ after fifty cards. After eighty, they were able to articulate why they preferred blue cards.
However, there was another part of the experiment: scientists monitored the participants’ sweat glands in the palm of their hand. Consequently, the scientists could monitor the gamblers’ stress levels. The discovery was illuminating.
On average, a participant had a stress reaction to the red pack by the tenth card – forty cards before they developed their hunches and seventy cards before they could explain the situation. Moreover, as soon as they began sweating, they opted for fewer cards from the red packs. In other words, in a time of stress their body opted for the optimum strategy before their mind knew what is going on.
The situation the scientists create is a decent comparison with a NL Hold ‘em game. Here is a section of Super System 2 by Doyle Brunson, considered by many to be the bible of poker, even by some who don’t have the surname Brunson.
‘Whenever I use the word ‘feel’ it is not some extra-sensory power. Many times I get a feeling that he’s bluffing or that I can make a play and get the pot. My subconscious mind is reasoning it all out. It is there, buried in your mind. When the time comes to use it, you won’t have to force it. The vibrations are definitely there. It is usually a stress situation. I don’t know exactly what I’d do until I’m faced with the problem. I go with my feeling, which is really a rapid analysis of conscious and subconscious thoughts.’
Although Super System 2 goes on to outline plenty of tips and strategies, by time he reaches the conclusion, he admits they are ‘white meat’ and only the foundations of success. He plays by ‘feel’, or what Gladwell deems ‘Blink’.
I am pretty sceptical about some aspects of popular science, but when I combine Gladwell’s thoughts with Brunson’s feelings, I think ‘Blink’ rings true, particularly when I contemplate my own experience at the table. There have been plenty of times when I have pressed the call button and watched my stack flee to the embrace of another. Annoyingly, I could have avoided those feelings of emptiness had I listened to my gut: I have ‘known’ my opponent’s cards before I press call – but my head insisted ‘It’s a bluff! It’s a bluff!’
I suspect that the top players, like Brunson, have developed a highly successful way of interpreting their body’s reaction to the game and then act accordingly. Maybe they understand the difference between the red and the blue cards after only ten tries. Take heart from that.
In the experiment, all of the participants registered for stress. Similarly, our bodies are reacting in the same way as Brunson’s when we play poker. Develop the art of listening to your physiological reaction and you too could reach the level when you ‘just know’ you can win the World Series with T-2.
Regular readers may recall that a previous post suggested that recent WSOP main event winner, Peter Eastgate, is a good example of what author Malcolm Gladwell terms an ‘Outlier’ (Check out the posts dated from November 18th – particularly if you are suffering from insomnia). Anyway, I would now like to demonstrate the true breadth of my reading by bringing ‘Blink – The Power of Thinking without Thinking’, to your attention. Yep, you guessed it - the book is by Malcolm Gladwell.
Rumours that I am in bed with his publishers remain unsubstantiated.
‘Blink’ attempts to explain ‘those moments when we know something without knowing why’. It uses a handful of examples, such a car salesman with the best figures in America, relationship advisors who can predict the likelihood that a couple will divorce and art dealers who can instantly spot a forgery. (The latter two examples could conceivably overlap.)
However, the best example for poker players occurs in the introduction: not only is it based on cards, it spares us the hassle of reading the subsequent 250 pages.
Scientists at the University of Iowa conducted an experiment. They placed four decks of cards on the table – two red packs and two blue. Participants were invited to turn cards. Every card would either earn them some money or cost them some money. They were free to choose and were asked to develop the most profitable strategy.
They were not told that the red cards were a snake pit: they gave huge prizes but devastating penalties. By contrast, it was possible for the stooges to profit by only selecting blue cards: the rewards steady and the punishments slight. The scientists wanted to discover how long it would take for the guinea pigs to make the discovery. On average, participants developed a ‘hunch’ after fifty cards. After eighty, they were able to articulate why they preferred blue cards.
However, there was another part of the experiment: scientists monitored the participants’ sweat glands in the palm of their hand. Consequently, the scientists could monitor the gamblers’ stress levels. The discovery was illuminating.
On average, a participant had a stress reaction to the red pack by the tenth card – forty cards before they developed their hunches and seventy cards before they could explain the situation. Moreover, as soon as they began sweating, they opted for fewer cards from the red packs. In other words, in a time of stress their body opted for the optimum strategy before their mind knew what is going on.
The situation the scientists create is a decent comparison with a NL Hold ‘em game. Here is a section of Super System 2 by Doyle Brunson, considered by many to be the bible of poker, even by some who don’t have the surname Brunson.
‘Whenever I use the word ‘feel’ it is not some extra-sensory power. Many times I get a feeling that he’s bluffing or that I can make a play and get the pot. My subconscious mind is reasoning it all out. It is there, buried in your mind. When the time comes to use it, you won’t have to force it. The vibrations are definitely there. It is usually a stress situation. I don’t know exactly what I’d do until I’m faced with the problem. I go with my feeling, which is really a rapid analysis of conscious and subconscious thoughts.’
Although Super System 2 goes on to outline plenty of tips and strategies, by time he reaches the conclusion, he admits they are ‘white meat’ and only the foundations of success. He plays by ‘feel’, or what Gladwell deems ‘Blink’.
I am pretty sceptical about some aspects of popular science, but when I combine Gladwell’s thoughts with Brunson’s feelings, I think ‘Blink’ rings true, particularly when I contemplate my own experience at the table. There have been plenty of times when I have pressed the call button and watched my stack flee to the embrace of another. Annoyingly, I could have avoided those feelings of emptiness had I listened to my gut: I have ‘known’ my opponent’s cards before I press call – but my head insisted ‘It’s a bluff! It’s a bluff!’
I suspect that the top players, like Brunson, have developed a highly successful way of interpreting their body’s reaction to the game and then act accordingly. Maybe they understand the difference between the red and the blue cards after only ten tries. Take heart from that.
In the experiment, all of the participants registered for stress. Similarly, our bodies are reacting in the same way as Brunson’s when we play poker. Develop the art of listening to your physiological reaction and you too could reach the level when you ‘just know’ you can win the World Series with T-2.
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