Decisions and Outcomes

One of the hardest aspects of poker is to remain focused when you are losing. If, during a session, you have watched stack after stack head south, you mind can easily become a jail populated by evil thoughts. It can be even worse if one particular player has been the beneficiary of your bad run. He is not going to tell himself he’s been lucky: he is going to think he’s the Daddy.

Try to recall that good decisions don’t always have good outcomes. On the night, it is a good decision for a singleton to sleep with an attractive person. If the person steals your car the next morning, the decision didn’t have a good outcome – but that doesn’t mean it was wrong, particularly if you drive a Riva G-Whiz.

The failure to differentiate between good decisions and good outcomes is known to social psychologists as the outcome bias. The table sees you losing money and assumes you are a fish. It looks at your opponent’s growing skyline of chips and thinks he’s the man. They are biased, you are nearly wiped out and it is hard to pat yourself on the back when your hands are being broken.

Indeed, it can be so difficult to concentrate that it is always worth considering taking a break or playing at different tables. If you must stick at it (and so you should when the winning player has been very lucky) be sure you maintain the ability to make the correct decisions. The outcome bias can easily creep into your own head, you start to feel like a loser and so you start to do exactly what losers do – make bad decisions.

Poker, like God (and the Devil) is in the details. Make the right decisions and deal with the outcomes.