Odds

So far, these posts have offered an overview of the different stages of Texas Hold ‘em and how they have a bearing on your choices. For the next few pieces, I’ll try to explain some of terms, styles and strategies you can employ during your session.

I’ll start with pot odds as it is arguably the simplest to understand. The term represents the probability of receiving the card you need to make your hand. The classic is drawing to a flush. You start with two suited cards and the flop brings another two. There are thirteen cards to a suit, four are on display so there are nine cards (or ‘outs’) still in the pack that can complete your flush.

If you want an approximation of the percentage chance of improving on your next card, you can simply double the outs and add one: i.e 2x9=18 (+1) = 19%, or roughly one time in five.

So, in this simple scenario, you look at the size of the pot and consider the price of calling. If you are receiving better than 5 to one, you call; if the odds are lower, you (should) fold.

However, Hold ‘em is rarely that straightforward. Usually, the only time when the pot odds are the sole consideration is when you are heads up and someone has gone all-in – there can be no further betting. The rest of the time you will find yourself in the land of implied odds.

They sound like something that has been conceived by a fairground barker who is trying to convince punters to part with their cash: look, we may be only able to offer you this amount but if that guy over there drops to tie his shoelace in approximately five seconds we’ll be able to pay a bit more.

In essence, implied odds are a test in speculation: you guess what will happen after you have put your money in the pot.

Let’s go back to the flush draw. We know that the turn will bring a card that makes a flush one time in five. Let’s add further details. You are on the button with your flush draw. The big blind has checked and a player in mid position has bet $30 into a $40 pot: $70 in, $30 to call, pot odds are 2.3 to one. Most players will call (raising might be better but that is beyond this example). Why?

Well, they expect that the size of the final pot will be quite a bit bigger. There is a chance the big blind might call, implying the odds would be 3.3 to one (effectively calling $30 for a $100 pot). There is also another consideration: there are two cards to come.
The odds of making the flush (in this example) with two cards to come are approximately 1.86 to one.

Not only is there a possibility that the big blind will call, there is a reasonable chance that the turn card will cause a round of checking, thus enabling you to take the river card for free. Add to that the times when the flush card hits on the turn and it becomes a good call.

The concept of implied odds is just mathematical short hand and don’t let it confuse you. If you are factoring in likely future occurrences to your play, you already understand implied odds.